Ego vs. Fan

A person can always make a prediction based on their interpretation of the facts at hand. Last year I predicted the Indiana Pacers would win the NBA East. They didn’t and so I had to placate my ego by saying if they hadn’t imploded I probably was going to be right looking at how badly Miami did against San Antonio. I know the Pacers aren’t the Spurs, but I think Indiana was overall potentially a better team than Miami. And since I am not a Pacer fan it didn’t matter to me except for a bit of a bruised ego that my prediction didn’t come to fruition.

It can be extremely different though if you make a prediction of a team you are a fan. And if you are a mega fan of the team the prediction can weigh heavily on you every day. And usually fans will make overly optimistic predictions. This year though I didn’t have much faith in my beloved Cowboys and am predicting they will go 5-11.

Now though they are 2-1 and our superstar owner is telling the whole world to “give the Boys a glance”. Yep the wonderful Mr. Jones is on his overly optimistic horse and wants the whole world to focus in on him, oops I mean the Cowboys. So am I riding that horse with him?

Lets take a look at the situation.

THE EGO INSIDE ME:

When I said the Cowboys were going to go 5-11 I counted the two wins they have right now towards my prediction of 5 total wins. And in some ways they were lucky to get the second win. I felt all three teams in the East were better and their out of division schedule was tough. I felt like they were going to be in some games, but unless there was improvement on defense they would lose close games in the end therefore only end up with about five victories. I said if they were going to have any chance at all the offensive line and running game were going to be a big part, but for the line to be good for the whole year it would be a huge step forward for them to gel this year. I felt the line has a chance to become a really good in the next couple of years if they are kept together.
I was worried about how good the defense was going to be. And even though they have made some plays I still think they have a ways to go to become consistently good.
The Washington New York game suggests Washington may have some problems so the Cowboys might pick up a win I wasn’t expecting. And even though they are 2-1 I haven’t seen hard evidence they will have a drastically better record than 5-11. I might be a bit off and they may end up with 6 or 7 wins, but I don’t see any drastic upswing at this time. I feel good about my prediction.

THE FAN INSIDE ME:

Can you believe these Cowboys? They are already 2-1 and wow wasn’t that a great comeback last week. Our offensive line is turning out better than expected. And our defense is making plays when they need to. Romo hasn’t looked great, but he is getting better each week.
So with our running game doing well, Romo getting better, and a better than expected defense the Cowboys have a legitimate chance of doing something this year. Maybe Mr. Jones is right and we should give the Cowboys a bit more of a glance.

THE TRUTH:

The truth can be very elusive, but we might get a good glance at it in a few hours. The Saints Cowboys game may actually tell us something.
If the Saints hand it to the Cowboys tonight then I feel good about my pre season prediction. The Cowboys may have their moments this year, but overall it is going to be a struggle.
If the Cowboys lose a very close game and especially if it is low scoring because the defense plays well then that might bode well for an 8-8 or 9-7 season and my ego will have to eat a little crow.
And if the Cowboys win tonight then the fan inside me is going to be impossible to live with tomorrow morning.

I will step up to the plate and take my swings, I am still worried about the outcome tonight and the overall season. I want to be wrong, I fear I am not. And that is the problem with making any prediction for anything you have an emotional attachment. It only works when you are overly optimistic and the team performs better than expected. That is a rare day.



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