First of all I must be missing something. I know most people
are accepting that Biden and Trump will be the respective nominees of their Party.
And I know it has been discussed here and there that both are old and what
might happen if one of them were to pass away. Yet I haven’t seen this dominate
any political landscape and the major issues it might cause one party if their
presumptive nominee passes away.
I cannot believe that there isn’t a significant hum in the
background noise about this happening. Everyone complains about the other
candidate being too old. Their cognitive capabilities aside either one of them
could pass away at any given moment. And yes I realize that people in worse
health than either one has lived well into their eighties. Yet the possibility
that one if not both could actually pass away between now and November is real.
Which brings me to this thought. Everyone in the Republican Party
that is high on Trump wants Ms. Haley to concede and drop out of the race. Much
to their chagrin that is the last thing they want. Here is the strangest rub.
The reality is that some that support Trump probably won’t go out and vote for
Ms. Haley. That is actually not that much of a problem. Most moderate Trump
supporters will vote for her because they don’t want Biden. She will only lose
that most radicalized of the Trump supporters. She will more than make up those
votes with non Trump Republicans and independents. The Republicans need her to
stay in the race as a back up plan. At this point and this is just opinion, but
I don’t think Ron DeSantis can come back and garner enough support to become
the nominee. If he tries and forces a floor fight at the convention, he splits
the party and guarantees the Democrats win even if the candidate is Kamala
Harris.
Which leads me to the Democrats problem. Kamala Harris will
lose to either Trump or Haley. Independents are not getting excited about
Harris so would stay home even if Trump is the candidate. She does not have
enough time to make a name for herself. Yes die hard Democrats will support
her, but that will not be enough to overcome her lack of headlines now. The closer
we get to November, the worse and worse things get for the Democrats if Biden
were to pass away. Even though Kamala Harris is Vice President, too many people
do not know enough about her to go out and vote for her.
And if the Democrats try to nominate someone else they split
the Party and lay one big egg in November.
The Republicans by Haley staying in the race have a built in
back up plan as long as Ron doesn’t poop the party at the Convention. And will
be in a much better place to win than the Democrats. Haley will have huge name
recognition for having stood up to Donald to the very end. This will be attractive
to independents which hands her the race.
Again many people live well into their eighties so this
scenario may never play out, but if I was a Republican donor or operative who
wasn’t cultistly tied to Trump, I would quietly encourage her to stay in the race.
Yet for people like me, who see both parties as having failed
this country, and not that I want anyone to pass away, it would be quite fun to
see two explosive floor fights at both conventions with both parties so damaged
that an independent could win enough to create the most interesting election in
the history of the country. What happens if no one gets to 270 electoral votes
and we have tied House, okay one vote majority, and Senate which might happen. And
yes the House could go really crazy with all the factions that might be
created, the hard right, the freedom caucus, moderate Republicans and
Democrats, the far left and leave us with one wild ride of uncertainty that
would make last year’s 15 votes for Speaker seem mundane.
Historically this seems absolutely absurd that something
like this would happen. Currently I am more than surprised that this isn’t on
more radars publicly. Next week is March and by the end of the month all the presumptions
will be in concrete. And then the headlines say….now I lay me down to sleep I
pray the Lord my soul to keep, if I should die before I wake I pray the Lord my
soul to take.
Life can be quite interesting some days. Cheers
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