Hotspots and commitments

Hotspots and commitments

First of all and not many people in the United States may want to hear this, but there is not really anything we can do right now that is going to have us come out smelling like roses on the world stage. I don’t like admitting it either, but truth be told we are one of the countries people like to complain. It would take years of concerted effort for our public image and more important substantive image to improve overall. Can we improve our image and even more important our substance? Yes, but right now it is not on the horizon
Second this is not an essay or commentary that could be used as a campaign device or a position paper on US foreign policy. It is just some observations on where I feel we stand in relation to some serious issues going on here on planet Earth.

And I will label the most important to the least important by number, but they are not in order as to the hottest spot being mentioned first.

2) I am going to start with Ukraine, not because it is the most important or most dangerous, but because it is one of the areas where we can show improvement in how we are perceived and have actual substantive gains in the immediate future. There are pitfalls though. We need to balance a commitment to helping the current Ukrainian government actually become a representative government without us becoming the major player in the current crisis and in the government itself. The best avenue for us is to take a backseat to Europe being the major player in the development of the country politically and economically. We need to be involved, but need to avoid any direct confrontation with Russia. We cannot take the chance of arming Ukraine to the hilt and then having them lose because their army is not as prepared as the Rebels or any support the Rebels may have behind them. A failure militarily with us being the major supporter would embolden Putin and others. Or if we are seen as propping up Ukraine that still leaves Russia the rational to increase their military spending and buildup under the guise of us being on their border and a danger to them. There is a benefit to decreasing the tensions between us and Russia even with Putin in charge. Under no circumstances though do I believe that acknowledging much of what Putin is doing in Russia is beneficial. Our best recourse is to support Germany and Ukraine’s neighbors in helping them become independently secure. We can supply support, but indirectly more than directly allows our European allies to further their goals and allows others to see us as a benefactor not self serving.

1B) There are two hotspots that currently we have no potential gain. The first is North Korea. There is much to be gained if Korea re unites, but we only benefit because others benefit. There is no way with the current climate that a war could be won with North Korea and if a war were to break out once North Korea started losing the possibility of a nuclear event would only escalate. This falls under the category desperate times call for desperate measures. And unfortunately there is no immediate hope of the reunification of Korea. Do we stay with the status quo? No, somehow we need to move the process forward. And we will not be able to be the hero in this situation. Our goal should be that South Korea slowly is able to start to bring the North to the table and slowly weaken the current regime in North Korea through a series of economic development that opens up the country and the rank and file of the North Korean army sees benefit in changing allegiances away from the North which helps to weaken the hold on the people by the government. And yes, this is not going to happen overnight. The benefits are obvious. A whole nation’s people can join the world community. South Korean can become even stronger economically and an example of a democratic or representative country being successful. The hazards are how China perceives this turn around. I see one potential gain in this scenario for China, but China perceiving three negatives. And the positive is not a large positive and that is they do not have a friend or ally that is really a thorn in their side. If you count up allies and friends it is always nice to have a large military on your side, but if that country/military is unstable then maybe the loss isn’t so bad.
The negatives though are a different story. First is China perceives Korea as being too strong. Competitively China now has four strong countries on or near its border in Korea, Japan, India, and Vietnam. And what was once a divided interest with competing militaries is now a united Country with a potentially very large and disciplined military. Quite frankly no one wants a strong military on their border. Hopefully Korea’s economy could absorb some of the impact of reducing the size of its military and the North’s, but there would be some immediate cost to reducing this much military in the short term. One potential positive scenario would be for Korea and China to find some common ground in economic development. Could China ramp up its infrastructure to allow for products to be imported from Korea? A good trade relationship would help to reduce tensions. As you know I am a strong proponent of energy diversity. If China developed ways to produce large amounts of electricity and Korea developed an electric car manufacturing capacity then a trade mechanism could be developed that benefits both countries. China continues its infrastructure growth and use of the electric cars helps them reduce pollution. Korea is able to absorb some of the rank and file military into a manufacturing role which also alleviates some of China’s fears or concerns. And by joint trade the other negatives are diminished. This includes the worry of the military buildup on their border and changes the dynamic of economic competition to economic cooperation. The United States benefits by reducing their military buildup on China’s border and hopefully reducing US China tensions which allows China to work more closely with the United States on other global hotspots. And China’s reliance on Russia’s natural resources is reduced which forces Russia back to being more cooperative in Europe.

1A DAESH. There is not one good answer for the United States here. The rest of the Middle East would like to goad us into fighting them, but we should stay away. Well we should, but the atrocities of this organization is too much too ignore. If we fight we continue to be the bad guys in the Middle East even if we succeed in completely obliterating them ourselves. The other countries in the Middle East don’t want to fight for two reasons (well recent events in Jordan may have cracked the armor a bit). First the governments don’t want to be judged as having Muslims killing Muslims no matter how bad they are or seen as giving gains to anyone from the West and well they just don’t want to fight anyone but Israel. You can make all the noise you want about Sunni vs Shite, this is just the powers at be using their peasants as pawns to keep themselves in power. This so called feud and all the anti-west diatribes keep the status quo in good standing. DAESH has done a good job of upsetting the apple cart, but you don’t see a large call to arms by Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, or any other major player over there in wanting to rid the world of this horror. Nope they want us to fall into this trap, lose our young men and women, buy their oil in this war, and then have an excuse to continue to denigrate us afterwards as having interfered in their affairs. I could write a hundred colloquialisms as to how bad this is for the United States to try and convince people we need to stay out, but truth be told we are stuck with a worldwide horror that needs addressing. There is no commitment either. We do not owe anybody anything in the Middle East except to continue to help Israel. If Daesh were to attack Israel in a last ditch attempt to recruit more fighters (which I fear eventually they may do) we would most definitely need to support Israel in any means they may ask of us, but for the rest of the Middle East we do not have an obligation no matter how much they say we do. And in a strange turn of events, if Iran were to step up to the plate and do something I would say we could give them some verbal support in the UN or the international stage, but nothing more. Iran would have to change many dynamics for us to support them beyond giving them our approval for dealing with this group. Yet I think it wouldn’t hurt us to recognize their actions if they really did something about DAESH. The problem of course is their long term commitment to Syria and what happens afterwards.
The United States cannot get involved. The situation really does need the Middle East to unite and tackle them, however, I do not think this will happen. The whole situation is a lose/lose for the United States. And again though something has to be done about these devil spawned fanatics.

3 China. This is a situation completely separate from my discussion on North Korean. If we could really improve relations with China, open trade equally, come to some working agreements so China recognizes it is a major player on the world stage, and create better relations with us then both countries benefit. I feel most foreign policy or Asia policy experts could recite a litany of benefits to us and China if the relationship improves. And especially economically if both countries can trade equally. China will always be suspicious of us, but we shouldn’t be afraid to continue to press them. We need to address concerns such as the South China Sea with strength, yet always move to give them an opportunity to grow. The more we recognize or even increase China’s role in the world the more receptive they will be to us. If we try to continue to use our leverage with other Asia countries the more China’s suspicions and concerns will grow. China wants the world to know who they are and recognize their importance in the world today. We need to take the lead in helping this develop. And simultaneously we can be strong in any areas that need addressing. China wants to win and grow, but it is a country that understands the concept of long term thinking. China can wait out setbacks better than we can so we need to address them with the same philosophy. And that is take a little at a time to get what you want in the long run, just don’t back down. Their history is long and has had setbacks, but they keep coming back and each time their esteem and power in the world has grown. The current situation is proof they will continue to be an important power on the world stage. We benefit if they know who we are and how to approach us. This takes strength and openness on our part. Two things that have not combined well in our history.

4 Russia. Russia has a proud history also that they want to increase in value with or without Putin. We need to work towards the long term goal, and in the background, of Russia developing stronger and fruitful ties with Europe. The US benefits if Russia is a strong power in the world if their development is tied to constructive growth within Europe. This allows the US to focus on Asia. If our allies in Europe benefit from Russia working constructively with them, then their strength in relation to ours grows which allows them to be on equal footing on with us.

6 India and South America. Basically these are not hot spots, but opportunities for us to change the world’s perception of us. If we work with India to enhance what has been started then we gain economically and bond with a country that has a world history that unfortunately along with most of our issues these others have that we don’t. India is one country recognized by the world as a legacy country that currently is not a danger to them. Okay Pakistan, but that is just about the hottest spot for India. This is a relationship we need to continue to foster. And for South America we can turn their opinion around by working within their needs instead of trying to force our wants upon them. We gain economically with better trade if we help them become more self sufficient. Brazil is a country leading the way in energy diversity. Showing them we think they are a leader and working with them to develop their exports with this only gains us a country that will support us in other endeavors.

5) Africa. There is too much going in this continent to try and write a paragraph or two to sum up everything. The terrorism that exists, the poverty, the disease etc are just too much for one region to tackle within itself, but the amount of work needed to begin to improve the situation will take the world coming together to build a plan that is acceptable to all. Africa with all its problems is the one region where the rest of the world can truly show we do want to be a better planet by developing and implementing ideas to improve the continent as a whole. The United States can benefit if they took the lead in positive development that allows the individual countries in Africa to overcome the many struggles they are encountering. Again it would take much more than one or two paragraphs to outline some possibilities for the US to gain positive approval.

We do not have to be number one in many economic statistics etc to be considered the number one country in the world. First not trying to be number one would be a step up in the world’s eyes. The goal of the United States should follow the old axiom of actions speak louder than words. Unfortunately what we have done that is good has been overshadowed of late by actions that benefit only a few in our country. We have given the world an example of what can be done if people are given the opportunity to grow, if people are allowed to think for themselves, that honest debate and downright disagreement can produce a working government that allows the people to drive the future of a country. We have given this away in the last half century, but if we work to reinstill the drive of the individual, the freedoms our forefathers gave us, and implement the design and goal of the constitution back into our government that would go far in showing the world that we truly want the best for ourselves and the whole of the planet. There is a preamble written that means much more to who we are than much written since. We need to continue to implement the idea of by the people for the people and never forget what this means.