Monday, October 23, 2023

Signs of a possible recession from someone not even an amateur economist and other thoughts

 

There is a company that started in Texas called Bucee’s. It has grown pretty significantly in Texas and lately is branching out to other states. It is not a truck stop, yet it is a place where you can stop get gas, food, an enormous variety of souvenirs, trinkets, road trip supplies, t-shirts with their logo, they tout their bathrooms being the cleanest and more. It isn’t a store that sells primarily necessities. It is quite an impressive size store that derives most of its business from people traveling. Or you might think that based on locations, however quite a few people go to one that is close to their house.

I use them as sort of a tongue in cheek marker for road trips. They are positioned near large cities in Texas, but mostly about 30-40 miles away so I say if you pass one on the highway going out of town you are now officially on a road trip according to my logic.  Their target audience is basically working and middle class families on the go.

So what has this got to do with a recession. There are now billboards where they are advertising 5% off the whole store. So this says to me sales may be slumping a bit. Most retailers have sales, however when the whole store goes on sale even a small amount something is usually amiss with total sales. The billboards lean into the idea that they are inflation fighting, but I am not buying it. I am not saying they are struggling, however, signs like these might mean leaner times are coming for the consumer economy. This is a very popular store where they are located and can be overwhelmed by crowds. I have made that stop on occasion over the last few years and it can be busy. There is always a line at the register which is a good sign for the company. I haven’t been in a few months so seeing this billboard makes me wonder. I am not about to make a special trip just to find out, yet if you are reading the tea leaves this billboard isn’t screaming optimism.

 

And as you know someone drove the House of Representatives off a large cliff. There are many culprits and suspects, yet generally there is a problem. I know some will say that the Democrats aren’t the problem, yet they are part of the disease as a whole. There is an article in from Time by Lee Drutman titled: “The only way to fix Congress”. First of all that is a bit presumptuous. Second Mr. Drutman mainly addresses the well known problem of the two party system is marching further and further to the right and left based House districts being safe for the respective partly. And as you know means the real election is in the primary for most House seats. Mr. Drutman works through this premise for the first half of his piece and discussing a bit of the current situation and history.

He then suggests that we should adopt a proportional representation system to elect House members. I have seen this discussed before and I certainly understand how it works. I am just curious about it. I think Mr. Drutman is also in favor of expanding the number of political parties which you know I am very in favor. The question is how do we break up the monopoly of the two party system. Do we sue them via the Federal Trade Commission? Probably won’t work, but at this point anything is worth a try. Going back to his proposal I am not sure how it would get implemented. You could still have just the two party system and maybe obtain better representation. I do not know, yet he tends to think so.

I think in some ways what he is proposing or the concept is somewhat done in the primary elections or at least it use to be. The primary candidates for President would receive delegates based on the percentage or some other formula used so it wasn’t winner take all. I think that might have changed, not sure. I do not vote for the two parties in an election, however I treat the primaries differently and have voted in Democrat and Republican primaries, mainly for the entertainment factor. I have been to precinct meetings and one year ended up being the person to help with the math to determine how many delegates each candidate received to go to the County or State totals. This was years ago so do not remember the exact details. I do remember it was a convoluted formula. The problem with voting in a primary is you receive inordinate amounts of campaign solicitations from various candidates from that party. It becomes way too much of a cost to opt out of it all just for one day of watching people behave like crazed baboons to sway how the results are determined and especially since it is a fixed formula. Or it was, not sure nowadays.

We do need to change processes up since the House is definitely at the bottom of a cliff right now. The idea in Mr. Durtman’s article won’t change our current disaster, yet it is a consideration for the present moving into the future.

And for me as always, we do need new major parties and maybe some different electoral maps.

Cheers

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