Okay maybe not now, but potentially in the next few years.
They are also benefitting other teams like the Timberwolves, The Kings, The
Lakers, possibly the Pelicans, and the two teams benefitting now and in the future,
are the Celtics and the Wizards.
For most teams Media day is tomorrow, Monday, and so many
teams will talk about their opportunities. Everyone will be hot and heavy for
the Thunder while Carmelo Anthony tries to deal with the media and a moving
truck. So why are some teams benefitting
from all the movement. I had written a bit of a piece a few weeks ago, now
though I am updating for two reasons, one media day is tomorrow and two Carmelo’s
move.
The Golden State Warriors are still the team to beat and
quite frankly it will take an act of God for them not to win. They are strong
enough to survive a case of the injury bug off and on throughout the season so
barring a complete deluge of insanity no one is beating them. Yet some teams
are sacrificing their future to try and become a win now team.
Houston went all in on Chris Paul and now the Oklahoma
Thunder have added to their camp by acquiring Melo. This is a must win now
moment for them. There is no guarantee that Westbrook, Paul George, or Carmelo
will stay and even that is if they win. Not winning means OKC could be superstarless
come next July 1st. That is a
big gamble. These two teams have the
most to gain and the most to lose depending on how the season turns out. The Clippers are either a cohesive surprise
or becoming one of the teams that drop the most and they have no future in
front of them. I also do not see them surprising anyone, but you never know.
Patrick Beverly is not a bad player. Utah’s future turned dim.
The team with the most promise right now is the Celtics.
They have a potential win now team, plus the assets and draft picks to be
competitive for quite a while. The Wizards are close to a win now team, yet
with some future. Right behind them are the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Who knows where the Cavaliers end up this year. And the
future is not too bright with all the LA talk for LeBron. If he stays, maybe a
year or two more. If not, they might make the playoffs with Love and Thompson
and even then, keeping them is a big if. I know I am in the minority, yet I do
not feel the Cavaliers will win the East. They may finish third and lose in the
second round or maybe the Eastern Conference finals.
So why is this all good for my Mavericks and possibly a few
other teams. First the one factor that must come into play is the Nerlons Noel
situation. He will need to shine and come back. The Mavs must be competitive so
he wants to come back. I hope they sneak into the playoffs so there is good excitement
that encourages him to come back. The problem will be if he has a border line
break out season. Will he expect the max again? Will it be enough to get it
from another team? Or from the Mavs? The best-case scenario is he has a good
year and realizes with the competition in free agency next year, he won’t get
the max and still feels good about Dallas because of the team potential and
accepts a very very good contract, but one that allows the Mavericks to keep
building over the next year or so. If that falls into place, for three to seven
years the Mavs could be one of the best teams in the NBA. The Cavaliers will be
out of the picture, the Thunder will be out of the picture, the Warriors will
have priced themselves out of the picture, the Rockets will be out of the
picture, the Clippers will be out of the picture, the Grizzlies are out of the
picture; so, the next question who is in the picture. The Celtics are there,
the Wizards might be there, the Timberwolves could be there, and then you have
the developing teams such as the Mavs, the Kings, the 76ers, the Lakers, (who
may get Lebron, yet may not be great for long term development, gives them a
year or two), the Pelicans if they ever figure out how to help Davis.
So, this leaves the Bulls, the Heat, the Hawks, the Hornets,
Indy and a few other teams on a wait and see. Do they do well in the draft next
year and can begin the process of being a developing team or do they fall to
the wayside and suffer for a few years. Sometimes teams turn it around quickly,
sometimes they get mired in their own missteps.
The three wild cards are the Spurs, the Trailblazers, and
the Knicks. The Knicks may move into the developing team with some young free
agents and another good draft pick next year. Trading Melo, probably is a
positive by subtraction and I think most people are agreeing with me. It
depends on how fast they can take advantage of the change. The Trailblazers
need help to be a win now team, yet if they can find one or two young pieces
they are very competitive for years. The future can be very bright in Portland
if they find those pieces.
And the Spurs, well I think they may have made some missteps
these past two off seasons. They have the organization to recover quickly and a
definite superstar to build around. Can they find the right pieces in trades
and free agency to bounce right back for a next year run for a championship or
will these missteps slow them down for a few years. The Spurs are not
challenging the Warriors this year. In fact, if Houston (I doubt and hope not,
but should be realistic) and OKC reach their current promise the Spurs may end
up fourth or fifth at the end of the regular season. I know Spurs fans are
confidant. I know they have faith, yet I feel they need to look ahead and see
who can help Leonard. The Spurs pulled a Mavs and went in too much on older
free agents. And everyone knows how this turned out for the Mavs.
So, the Mavs have the chance to be competitive this year,
gain confidence and cohesion, hopefully keep Noel, and add either in draft or
young free agents next year and they will be poised to keep this MFFL(E) very
happy for many years. Let the season begin.
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