I wanted to use a horse racing analogy, you know there
headed down the back stretch, rounding the final curve, or headed down the
stretch, but I occasionally go to the horse races and I really like them so I
didn’t want to taint something fun.
Anyway I was reading an article discussing the paycheck to
paycheck people who might vote for Trump since many people feel they were
better off under Trump’s administration than Biden’s. And technically they
were, but what they do not realize is that mostly a President’s administration is
a lagging economic indicator not a leading economic indicator. Of course you
need to understand a bit of basic economics to understand where I might be going
with this, so what a President does that might influence the economy shows up
late in their administration or at the beginning of the next administration.
And in many cases what a President does cannot even be a
leading economic indicator, many times circumstances dictate more of what
happens and it is how the President responds that effects the economy. Bush
wasn’t the direct cause of the 2008 recession, but it fell under his
administration so many people blame him for it. Obama reacted accordingly and
some of his policies eventually helped the economy, but also the Fed dropping interest
rates to historic lows benefitted the perception of some people (Democrats) on how
well Obama did. Eventually our economy started growing again and Trump ended up
benefitting from that growth. Then Trump cut taxes for the rich, they bought stock
like crazy since they had free money with low interest rates and more of it
with the tax cuts so the stock market boomed under Trump. The actual economy
was good, but stock price growth was stronger than the actual economy.
Then the pandemic happened and even though the stock market
did a roller coaster drop then bounced right back again with the continuation
of historically low interest rates, the actual economy took a hit, not in
growth, but in inflation which occurred as the economy transitioned from Trump
to Biden. Trump’s lack of reaction to the pandemic and other factors lead to
the high levels of inflation we saw, but since it happened under Biden’s
administration many people feel inflation is Biden’s fault. And of course in
this election cycle the Republicans are playing this tune to no end. With most
people not having majored in economics in college the understanding of all the
factors of inflation are easily manipulated.
So for the paycheck to paycheck voter it is easy for them to
mistake the economy under Trump and Biden so after all the above I tend to
agree with the author’s premise that they might be more likely to vote for
Trump than many Democratic operatives want to realize or admit and Trump still has
a strong chance of winning the election.
And before you say Biden had a hand in reducing inflation
over the last year or so, it was the Fed raising interest rates that also had a
stronger affect on inflation than anything Biden did.
And now that inflation is slowing the Fed is thinking of
cutting interest rates, which is what they should do, but the Republicans are
going to cry foul since it is coincidentally going to happen a month or so
before the election. And the Republicans I am predicting will scream loud and
hard that the Fed is trying to help the Democrats by lowering interest rates
now. I bet you dimes to donuts and donuts
are worth more now because of inflation you will see this messaging from the
Republicans next week if interest rates are cut which seems to be likely. It
will be all Biden’s doing that interest rates are lowered now and they will
twist this more ways than a pretzel to try and make their case.
And even though the policies of both Presidents exacerbated
inflation for different reasons, neither is directly responsible for it. Yet
tell that to millions of Americans suffering from it right now so again there
is going to be way too much of a tendency by Republicans to tie inflation to
Biden, too much of them yelling foul when interest rates get lowered, but in
the end neither party not sure what to do next for our economy and that is
where we stand in the campaign, a bunch of people in Washington touting stuff
they only have a partial handle on and blaming the other side for all they don’t
have a handle on.
Throw in the hundredth let’s shut down the government threat
from the Republicans and all sorts of madness is going to be spouted on the
campaign trail for the next 50 or so days with neither party exactly sure what
they are doing.
Or you know why Trump and Harris don’t have an economic
plan, well…..
because they don’t have a clue.
Other thoughts:
I am not a big fan of class action lawsuits for the same
reason most people are mad about them. You hear about grotesquely large sums
being touted, yet everyone gets thirty eight cents or whatever. I am saying
this because I read about two this weekend and you know the attorneys will make
hundreds of millions of dollars, but we all doubt we will get a hundred cents
from them. The two I heard about where one about banks and Mastercard and Visa
settling for excessive ATM fees that blocked competition and the other for
Navient being sued for predatory practices regarding refinancing student loans.
Millions of Americans are affected by these suits, but what we will see. Hmmmmmmm
What is going on with right wing women and their looks. You
see so many derogatory comments about left wing women with meme pictures spread
on right wing social media sites including “X” formerly Twitter (when can we stop
saying formerly Twitter?) looking well memeish. Yet what is with Laura Loomer?
She looks like a Kimberly Guilfoyle wanna be and ugh, why would she want that look.
Both look scary, like some serious technical flaws in a Stepford wife design.
Or where the manufacturing of said Stepford wife had serious breakdowns. And I saw
a recent picture of Megha Kelly and she looks overly emaciated. What has happened
to her? No matter what, I would think some of these right wing social media influencers
may want to say something to some of their own before posting anymore comments.
And finally going back to the economics situation above, I
have been touting my own ideas to lower the deficit and debt of our country for
decades and first put into print for the 2012 election. It isn’t that hard folks.
Cheers
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